The equity markets had an inside day
today. Most indices traded well in the upper end of yesterday’s range. The SPX formed a double bottom at the 897 level and closed strong.
However as I write this post the S&P futures are down 11 points.
It seems this was a result of a news item that Bank of America needs $34B in new capital based on the stress test results. Though BAC has declined to comment, I expect a distribution day tomorrow with traders now having ample reason to take profits.
In today’s post I will analyze two charts, one for Apple and for the 30 year treasury (TLT).
Apple: Forming a Megaphone Top
Apple’s stock has been on a tear since the rally began and closed higher today.
However today it formed an interesting pattern called the Broadening Top or a Megaphone Pattern. This is a pattern which marks a reversal at the top of a long bullish run.
If the weakness in the equity market continues into tomorrow’s session, I expect the breakdown to occur tomorrow to complete the pattern.
I commented on twitter as this pattern developed throughout the day. I noticed it forming during the afternoon and
the pattern continued to follow a text-book pattern till the close of the day. Based on the pattern, Apple should first reach a downside target of around 131.20, and then assuming the lower trend line breaks, go down to touch 130, or even lower to 129.60 (from a pure pattern perspective).
You can follow my twitter updates on my blog also.
Long Bond (30 year): Poised to Break Downtrend
As I have posted I have a long position in the TLT which I have kept during the sell-off; I had hedged a portion with TBT calls which I no longer hold.
As the chart shows for ZB, the 30year bond futures show, the price has formed some sort of a bottom and is poised to break back up.
As I write this article the futures are trading at 122’265, above the resistance line in the chart.
I expect the long bond to retrace at least to the 123’065 level (23.6% retracement) or even to the 38.2% level (124’055) before this up move is done.
If the BAC story is true risk appetite is going to wane a bit, and yields should pull back.
This is likely to be good for the green-shoots
to continue growing.
My Portfolio
I have built a short position in Apple today via outright equity shorts and puts. I expect to book profits on any weakness tomorrow.
I will also start scaling out of my TLT positions if this surge in bonds continues. I did scale out my
IYR puts today and will continue to do so on any further weakness.
I am hoping that we pull back to the 875 level on the S&P, test it.
A test of that level will reassure a lot of bulls and also weaken the bearish sentiment.